IRR, NPV, and multi-year after-tax cash flow for a Cuba investment across seven sectors, with risk premiums baked in for Helms-Burton, MLC friction, and the CACR overlay.
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Tax | Maint. capex | FCF | Disc. CF |
|---|
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Order-of-magnitude estimate. Discount = your USD WACC + a sector-specific Cuba risk premium. Not a substitute for a fully diligenced model.
The model projects a deterministic revenue / EBITDA schedule using the sector defaults you can override, applies the chosen tax rate to EBITDA to approximate operating cash taxes, deducts maintenance capex as a percent of revenue, then applies an exit multiple to terminal-year EBITDA.
FCF formula: FCF = EBITDA × (1 − tax) − maintenance capex. Terminal year adds exit multiple × terminal EBITDA on top.
2024–2025 Caribbean / EM-comparable benchmarks, adjusted for Cuba’s specific overlay (CACR, Helms-Burton Title III, MLC stack, payment friction). Full methodology in the pillar guide.
| Sector | EBITDA margin | Rev. growth | Cuba risk premium | Reference comp set |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tourism & Hospitality | 28% | 12% | 16% | Branded Caribbean hotels run 25–35% EBITDA margins. Premium dominated by Helms-Burton Title III exposure on confiscated property and JV partner concentration with GAESA / Gaviota / Habaguanex. |
| MIPYMES (private sector) | 22% | 18% | 10% | Newly-legal Cuban private firms (since Decreto-Ley 46/2021). Highest growth reflects formalisation off a near-zero base; lowest premium because §515.574 explicitly authorises engagement. |
| Mariel ZED | 32% | 10% | 13% | EM SEZ benchmarks (Dominican Republic free zones, Panama Pacífico) at 28–35% EBITDA. ZED-specific tax holiday lowers cash burden materially below headline 35%. |
| Biotech & Pharma (BioCubaFarma) | 35% | 8% | 14% | BioCubaFarma generics + immunotherapy comps; mid-30s EBITDA. Premium reflects CACR licensing exposure on US clinical trials and FDA pathway uncertainty. |
| Mining (nickel, cobalt — Moa) | 34% | 7% | 14% | Sherritt-style nickel/cobalt JV comps at Ni ~$16,000/t; battery-metal demand pull. Premium reflects sustained Helms-Burton exposure (Title III claims around Moa). |
| Telecom & Digital | 38% | 9% | 13% | EM mobile operators run 35–45% EBITDA margins. ETECSA monopoly limits foreign equity entry; CACR §515.578 carves out specific telecom GLs. |
| Agriculture (domestic / ALIMPORT) | 16% | 6% | 10% | Domestic-market food producers; commodity-cycle exposed and constrained by ALIMPORT pricing. Lowest premium because least sanctions-exposed. |